S8: Beyond growth? Integrated models, simulations and scenarios of the future shape urban-rural regions

Urban growth has been replaced by decline and shrinkage in many parts of Europe, especially Central Eastern Europe, Japan or the US. Decreasing population density, both by lower birth rates, and by migration is associated with an on-going increase of land consumption (urban sprawl) per capita. The underlying social and demographic processes, as well as the affected ecological processes are complex. Indicators that mostly aggregate several observed variables are appropriate to quantify the state of the system. Cause-effect relationships however especially base on nonlinear interaction are difficult to analyse. Thus management strategies can hardly be identified based on static indicator systems.

This session brings together new developments in integrated modelling of urban-rural systems/landscapes.

Major topics are:

• Studies of integrated modelling and simulation of land use changes with the associated land consumption and land surfacing, growing traffic density as well as flows of matter through the landscape, and the assess ecosystem services provided by the dynamically changing urban-rural landscape;
• Study methodologies for an integrated investigation of biophysical, socio-demographical and economics knowledge within dynamic land use cover change models with different levels of aggregation (cellular automata, system dynamics, agent-based, etc.)
• Studies of tools that helps communicate system dynamics of landscapes. Integrated models that help to elaborate these system dynamics and makes interactions reproducible and thus can be communicated to planners or hopefully stakeholders.
• Use models to get a broader picture of evidence and patterns of urban non-growth and shrinkage processes, and, what is more, to provide practitioners with appropriate knowledge how to support this process to stabilise the inner city and to maintain the urban periphery in a sustainable way, long-term monitoring and based on that, modelling are suitable tools.

Schedule

10:30. Beyond growth - urban development in shrinking cities: Approaches to analyse and explain the consequences of non-growth for the development of cities and city regions in Europe. S. Kabisch, A. Haase, D. Haase.

10:45. Microeconomic motives of land use change in coastal zone area: agent based modelling approach. T. Filatova, A. v.d.Veen.

11:00. A model for investment decision support based on multi-criteria analysis. I. Glazyrina

11:15. Taking account of water supply infrastructure in land-use-planning: an integrated supply-demand approach. B. McIntosh, F. di Pierro, P. Jeffrey, S.-T. Khu, C. Fox, D. Savic, M. Sewell, H. Tran

11:30. Urban Growth and Simon Process: Japanese Case. T. Fukiharu

11:45. A simulation model of land-use change in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada, as used in a decision-support system. M. Hessenflow, D. Halsing

12:00. Driving forces in the long range development of wastewater treatment plants. D. Dominguez, W. Gujer, B. Truffer