S3: Integrated Models for Prediction, Forecasting, and Future Scenario Assessments of Human and Environmental Conditions

Organised by: Denis White , US Environmental Protection Agency; Ruth Waldick, Environment Canada

Proposed topics

In this session we have representative presentations from one or more of several different genres of integrated modeling systems. These genres include model integration systems, landscape simulators, urban growth simulators, backcasting multi-endpoint scenario models, agent-based modeling systems, and modeling libraries. In addition we have a presentation that compares and classifies models according to purpose or intended use, adaptability to different problems, spatial and temporal framework, data and computing requirements, analytical methods, handling of uncertainty, and ease of use. Finally, we have a presentation representing Canadian, Australian, EU, and US viewpoints on the challenges to institutionalization of integrated modeling for across-jurisdictional and across-sectoral applications.


Part 1, Monday 15:45-17:30

Theme 1: Dynamic Process and Resource Models

15:45. A Tool to Evaluate the Air Quality Impact of Industrial emissions (TEAP) by Using MM5-CMAQ: Spain Case. Dr Prof Roberto San Jose.

16:00. Current development and application of the modular Java based model JAMS to meet the targets of the EU-WFD in Germany. Dr Ulrike Bende-Michl.

16:15. Interleaving Growth and Regeneration Models in the NED-2 Decision Support System for Forests Ecosystems. Dr Donald Nute

16:30. Managing for Visual Goals in the NED-2 Decision Support System for Forests Ecosystems. Dr Donald Nute

16:45. Modeling Total Maximum Daily Load Information Collection Decisions with Bayesian Networks. Dr. William Labiosa

Theme 2: Trade-off and Scenario Planning Approaches

17:00. Simulating scenarios for decision-making in river basin systems through a Multi-Agent system. Ms Thania Rendon

17:15. Questions and general discussion

Part 2, Tuesday 9:45-11:00

Theme 2: Trade-off and Scenario Planning Approaches

9:45. The integrated model network ITE2M: model set-up and assessment of agricultural land use and management options. Mr Wolfgang Reiher

10:00. Watershed Health Assessment Tools-Investigating Fisheries (WHAT-IF): A modeling toolkit for watershed and fisheries management. Dr Brenda Rashleigh

10:15. Modelling farmer decision making for natural resource management outcomes. Dr Brett Bryan.

Theme 3: Decision-support Frameworks for integrated models

10:30. SADA: A Freeware Decision Support Tool Integrating GIS, Sample design, Spatial Modeling, and Risk Assessment. Mr Robert Stewart

10:45. Bayesian decision networks - going beyond expert elicitation for parameterisation and evaluation of ecological endpoints. Dr Carmel Pollino

Part 3, Tuesday 11:15-12:30

Theme 3: Continued

11:15. The multiple scale land use change model LandShift: A scenario analysis of land use change and environmental consequences in Africa. Dr Ruediger Schaldach

11:30. Future Solutions: Integrated Models for SEA and other Land-Use Decision-Making. Dr Ruth Waldick

  11:45. Workshop 11 Speaker. Contrasting Citizen and Expert-driven Approaches to Creating Scenarios. David W. Hulse