S1: Complexity, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Issues in Integrated Environmental Models

Jaroslav Mysiak, Holger Maier, Jim Ascough, and James Brown ( Workshop 2 )
Claudia Pahl-Wostl and Marcela Brugnach (Workshop 8)
Miquel Sànchez-Marrè, Ignasi R.-Roda, Richard S. Sojda, Jean Philippe Steyer, and Peter Struss (Workshop 10)
Guy R. Larocque, Jagtar Bhatti, Andrew M. Gordon, Nancy Luckai, and Jinxun Liu (Workshop 15)


The purpose of this session is to provide a forum for a set of presentations focusing on complexity, uncertainty and sensitivity issues in integrated environmental models.


The session scope encompasses the topics considered in Workshops 2, 8, 10, and 15. This includes:


Part 1, Tuesday 11:15-12:30

11:15. Sensitivity Analysis of Historical Aerial Photography: A Case Study of Barrier Island Marshes. Joanne Halls

11:30. Rank-Equivalence method for Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Model of a River Catchment. Jakin Ravalico, Graeme Dandy, Holger Maier

11:45. Using Optimization for Environmental Simulation Model Calibration Uncertainty Analysis. Bryan Tolson, Christine Shoemaker

12:00. Avoiding the finite difference sensitivity analysis deathtrap by using the complex-step derivative approximation technique. Dirk J.W. De Pauw, Peter A. Vanrolleghem

12:15. Practical Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Techniques Applied to Agricultural System Models. James C. Ascough II

Part 2, Tuesday 14:15 - 15:15

14:15. Using the Monte Carlo method to quantify uncertainty in predictions of a soil carbon cycle model in balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) and black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) forest ecosystems in the boreal forest. Guy R. Larocque, David Parè, Robert Boutin, Valèrie Lacerte

14:30. Quantifying uncertainties associated with estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and removals from Canada's managed forests. Thomas White, Werner Kurz, Graham Stinson

14:45. Impacts of Forest Disturbances on the Carbon Cycle in the Laurentian Plains and Hills of the United States. Jinxun Liu, Shuguang Liu, Linda S. Heath, Thomas R. Loveland, Larry L. Tieszen

15:00. Improving the Use of Data for Quantifying Uncertainty in Parameters and Predictions of Forest Dynamic Models by Bayesian Approach. Alexander Komarov, Pavel Grabarnik, Alexey Mikhaylov, Oleg Chertov

Part 3, Tuesday 15:45 - 17:30

15:45. Uncertainty analysis of WETLAND-DNDC: Errors and critical parameters for predicting carbon dynamics in wetland ecosystems. Harbin Li, Changsheng Li, Carl Trettin

16:00. Application of an Artificial Neural Network and Stochastic Conditional Simulation at the Schuyler Falls Landfill, NY. Lance Besaw

16:15. A Retrospective Analysis of Model Uncertainty for Forecasting Hydrologic Change. Darius Semmens, William Kepner, David Goodrich, Mariano Hernandez

16:30. Parameter, data input and structural uncertainty propagating through coupled models in a river water quality modelling system. Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt

16:45. Forecasting and managing sustainable systems: A framework based on optimal control and options theory. Urmila Diwekar, Yogendra Shastri

17:00. Questions and general discussion