iEMSs 2002 sessions (part two)


Structural Change, Model Evaluation (Validation), and Environmental Foresight
Coordinated by M. Bruce Beck

Modelling the effect of information feedback on the spread of the Ebola virus 
O'Regan, B., R. Moles  (p.1)

Exergy and Information Indices: A Comparison for Use in Structurally Dynamic Models
Fath, B.D (p.7)

Uncertainty Management in Complex Models: the NUSAP method
van der Sluijs, J., J. Risbey, S. Corral Quintana, J. Ravetz (p.13)

Integrating Mechanistic Modelling and Statistical Learning Theoretic-Methods: initial steps toward a strategy for model evaluation and structure selection
Guergachi, A. (p.19)

Application of a Checklist for Quality Assistance in Environmental Modelling to an Energy Model
Risbey, J., J. van der Sluijs, J. Ravetz, P. Kloprogge, S. Funtowicz, S. Corral Quintana (p.25)

Integrating Stakeholder Imagination with Scientific Theory: a Case Study of Lake Lanier, USA.
Osidele, O.O., and M.B. Beck (p.31)

Integrating structural changes in future research and modelling on the Seine River Basin
Kieken, H (p.37)
Methods of Uncertainty Analysis
Coordinated by John P. Norton
Uncertainty in Model Predictions: Does it Preclude Effective Decision Support ?
Reichert, P., M. Borsuk (p.43)

Data Assimilation and Uncertainty Analysis of Environmental Assessment Problems
Romanowicz, R., P.C. Young (p.49)

Management of Contamination Risks and Identification of Contamination Sources
Kryazhimskii, A., V. Maksimov (p.55)

A comparison between the uncertainties in model parameters and in forcing functions: an application to a 3D water quality model.
Pastres R., S. Ciavatta. (p.60)

LPV Approximation of Distributed Parameter Systems in Environmental Modeling
Belforte, G., F. Dabbene, P. Gay (p.66)

Credal classification for mining environmental data
Zaffalon, M. (p.72)

Probabilistic Finite Automata and randomness in nature: a new approach in the modelling and prediction of climatic parameters
L.Mora-López, R.Morales-Bueno, M.Sidrach-de-Cardona, F.Triguero (p.78)

Trees, Dendrograms and Sensitivity
Braddock, R.B. (p.84)

Investigating Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Integrated, Multimedia Environmental Models: Tools for 3MRA
Babendreier, J. E., K. J. Castleton (p.90)

A DSS for Water Resources Management under Uncertainty
Pallottino, S., G.M. Sechi, P. Zuddas (p.96)
  Bayesian Networks
Coordinated by Ari Jolma

Integrative environmental prediction using Bayesian networks: A synthesis of models describing estuarine eutrophication
Borsuk, M.E., C.A. Stow, and K.H. Reckhow (p.102)

A Bayesian network for investigating the decline in fish catch in Switzerland
Borsuk, M.E., P. Burckhardt-Holm, P. Reichert (p.108)

An Approximation Algorithm for the Updating of Non-Gaussian Dynamic Processes
Gargoum, A. S. (p.114)
  Environmental Applications of Artificial Neural Networks
Coordinated by Giorgio Guariso

Modelling and Short Term Forecasting of Photochemical Pollution by Soft Computing Techniques
Finzi, G, G. Nunnari, M-L. Volta (p.120)

Local Short-Term Prediction of Wind Speed: a Neural Network Analysis
Pérez-Llera, C., M.C. Fernández-Baizán, J.L. Feito, V.E. González del Valle (p.124)

A Neural Emission-Receptor Model for Ozone Reduction Planning
Barazzetta, S., G. Corani, G. Guariso (p.130)

Use of Genetic Algorithms to Select Input Variables in Artificial Neural Network Models for the Prediction of Benthic Macroinvertebrates
d'Heygere, T., P.M.L. Goethals, N. De Pauw (p.136)

Optimisation of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model design for prediction of macroinvertebrate communities in the Zwalm river basin (Flanders, Belgium)
Dedecker, A., P. Goethals, W. Gabriels, N. De Pauw (p.142)

Optimization of a Model to Predict Salinity Intrusion in San Francisco Bay Estuary Using a Genetic Algorithm
Rajkumar, T., D.E. Thompson (p.148)
Solving the Inverse Problem in Stochastic Groundwater Modelling with Artificial Neural Networks
Rajanayaka, C., S. Samarasinghe, D. Kulasiri (p.154)

Short term river flood forecasting with neural networks
García-Bartual, R. (p.160)

Flood Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks in Black-Box and Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Modelling
Toth, E., A. Brath (p.166)

Hydrologic Modeling and Analysis Using a Self-Organizing Linear Output Network
Hsu, K., S. Sorooshian, H.V. Gupta, X. Gao, B. Imam (p.172)

An Artificial Neural Networks Modeling Approach Applied to the Probabilistic Management of Water Resources Systems
Ochoa-Rivera, J.C., R. García-Bartual, J.Andreu (p.178)

Applications of Agent-Based Simulation in Integrated Modelling and Assessment
Coordinated by Matt Hare

Applications: modelling human agency

How bad isn't the agent-based model CATCHSCAPE?
Becu, N., P. Perez, O. Barreteau, A. Walker (p.184)

Modeling the Effects of Greenbelts at the Urban-Rural Fringe
Brown, D.G., S.E. Page, R. Riolo, W. Rand (p.190)

Multi-Agent Simulations as a tool for the assessment of urban microclimate and its effect on pedestrian behaviour
Bruse, M. (p.196)

Agent-based simulation of an environmental action campaign: Changing people's behaviour via their inner contradictions
Mosler, H-J. (p.202)

Modelling contrasted management behaviours of stakeholders facing a pine encroachment process: an agent-based simulation approach
Etienne, M., C. Le Page (p.208)
An Architecture for Modelling Individual Behaviour and Landscape Scale Outcomes in an Intelligent Agent-Based Simulation of Environmental Management
Smith, L.J., R Itami, I.D.Bishop (p.214)
Applications: modelling non-human agency

HOOFS - a multi-scale, agent-based simulation framework for studying the impact of grazing animals on the environment
Beecham, J.A., S.P. Oom, C.P.D. Birch (p.220)

Modeling and Analysis of Biofilms Formation and Evolution in Wastewater Treatment Processes using Multi-Agent Systems
Lardon, L., J-P. Steyer, N. Bernet, C. Le Page (p.226)
An Application of Queuing Theory to Waterfowl Migration
Sojda, R. S., J. E. Cornely, L.H. Fredrickson (p.232)

Agent Based Simulation in Integrated Assessment and Resources Management
Pahl-Wostl, C. (p.239)

Modelling Intervention Strategies for Cooperative Environmental Management
Doran, J. (p.245)

Combining object-oriented programming and relational databases for multi-scale spatially-integrated agent-based models
Polhill, J.G., N.M. Gotts, A.N.R. Law (p.251)
  Applications: stakeholder approaches

A step-by-step approach to build-up land management scenarios based on multiple viewpoints on multi-agent system simulations
Etienne, M., M. Cohen, C. Le Page (p.257)

Agent-based and Integrated Assessment Modelling for Incorporating Social Dynamics in the Management of the Meuse in the Dutch Province of Limburg
Krywkow, J., P. Valkering, J. Rotmans, A. van der Veen (p.263)

M3 Project - Actor Based Simulation in Virtual Worlds
Rosé, H., T. Asselmayer-Maluga, P. Frank, A. Hoheisel, B. Walter (p.269)

The Role Playing Games in an ABM Participatory Modeling Process: Outcomes from Five Different Experiments Carried out in the Last Five Years
D'Aquino, P., O. Barreteau, M. Etienne, S. Boissau, S. Aubert, F. Bousquet, C. Le Page, W. Daré (p.275)


Environmental Fluid Dynamics
Coordinated by Yaping Shao

INVITED PAPER: Computational Simulation of Turbulent Flows and Pollution Dispersion in Complex urban Canyons
Bei, N., Y. Shao (p.281)

High-resolution Simulation of Flow and Dispersion of Volcanic SO2 over the Miyake Island
Seino, N., H. Sasaki, J. Sato and M. Chiba (p.290)

Development of a dynamical core for a new atmospheric meso-scale numerical model
Sha, W. (p.296)

Exploration of the Behaviour of a Stochastic Transport Model Using Computational Experiments
Rajanayaka, C., D. Kulasiri (p.301)

Application of 1D and 3D Hydrodynamic Models Coupled to an Ecological Model to Two Water Supply Reservoirs
Romero, J.R., C. Dallimore, J. Antenucci, D.P. Hamilton, J. Imberger, D.A. Horn, A. Deen (p.307)

Comparison Between Water Quality Models for Toxics
Gualtieri, C. (p.313)

Mesoscale modelling of interactions between rainfall and the land surface in West Africa
Sogalla, M., M. Kerschgens (p.319)

Numerical Model of Flow Field in Urban Canopy Layer
Huizhi, L., W. Baoming, S. Jianguo W. Xiaoyun (p.325)

A Climate Dynamical Model on Oasis Development
Yuan, C., D. Zhou, J. Chao, X. Pan (p.331)
Modelling Climate and Global Change
Coordinated by Robert J. Oglesby

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?
Oglesby, R.J., S. Marshall, C.D.J. Erickson III; F.R. Robertson, J.O. Roads (p.337)

Simulations of the 2001 Indian Summer Monsoon Onset with a General Circulation Model
Bollasina, M., L. Bertolani, G. Tartari (p.343)
Relative Performance of Empirical Predictors of Daily Precipitation
Cavazos, T., B.Hewitson (p.349)

Clouds form preferentially over native vegetation
Lyons, T.J. (p.355)

Modelling annual rainfall using a hidden-state Markov model
Srikanthan, R., M.A. Thyer, G. Kuczera, T. A. McMahon (p.360)

Potential impact of global warming on tropical tuna habitat
Loukos, H., P. Monfray, L. Bopp (p.366)

Ecosystem as a text: semantic analysis of the global vegetation pattern.
Svirezhev, Y.M. (p.372)

Simple Spatially Distributed Model of the Global Carbon Cycle and its Dynamic Properties.
Svirezhev, Y.M. (p.377)
Environmental Modelling of Physical, Biophysical and Chemical Processes as a Component of Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Interaction
Coordinated by Dragutin T. Mihailovic

Invited paper: Environmental Modelling of Physical, Biophysical and Chemical Processes In The Atmosphere Plant-Soil Interaction: How Nonlinearity affects the Solution
Mihailovic, D.T. (p.383)

An approach for the aggregation of albedo in calculating the radiative fluxes over heterogeneous surfaces in atmospheric models
Kapor, D., D. T. Mihailovic, T. Tosic, S.T. Rao, C. Hogrefe (p.389)

Sensitivity of different evapotranspiration calculation methods in different crop-weather models.
Eitzinger, J., D. Marinkovic, J. Hösch (p.395)

The assessment of the influence of the surface fluxes on the extended weather prediction
Djurdjevic, V., B. Rajkovic (p.401)

Framework of regional impacts assessment model and its application on arid/semi-arid region
Li, Y. and J. Ji (p.407)

Adjustment to the single point forcing on the Z grid: Linear Theory
Djurdjevic, V., B. Rajkovic, M. Gavrilov (p.413)

Weathering In Terrestrial Ecosystems: Carbon Sink.
Egorov, P. and Y.M. Svirezhev (p.418)

Population dynamics and treatment strategies of Phytophthora infestans (late blight) in the Mid-Hills of Nepal
Apel, H., M.S. Paudyal, O. Richter (p.424)

Environmental Risk Assessment of pesticide use based on the modelling of the environmental fate of pesticides in soil
Apel, H., Richter, O. (p.430)

New approach in parameterisation of momentum transport inside and above forest canopy under neutral conditions
Lalic, B., D.T. Mihailovic (p.436)

The Particle Deposition Flux Monitoring and Analysis Approach of the SUPREME Project
Clai G., F. Monforti F., C.Catelli, G.Zanini, R. Bellasio, R. Bianconi, M.Bazzoli, A. Manganelli, J. Jacucci (p.442)

Land air surface scheme (LAPS) for use in urban modells
Lazic, J., D.T. Mihailovic, B. Lalic, I. Arsenic, C. Hogrefe (p.448)


Socio-Economic and Environmental Modelling
Coordinated by Michael McAleer

Emissions trading and energy

Emission Trading Experiments: Investment Uncertainty and Liability.
Kusakawa, T., Saijo, T. (p.454)

Estimating Tradeable Certificates Created by Small-Scale Renewable Energy Systems
Pryor, T., C. Watkins and H. Lang (p.460)

The costs and benefits of pre-action before Kyoto compliance
Pan, H., D.Van Regemorter (p.466)

Price Asymmetries in International Gasoline Markets
Galeotti, M., A. Lanza, M. Manera (p.472)
The Economy, environment and sustainability

The Impact of Mature Trees on House Values and on Residential Location Choices in Quebec City
Thériault, M., Y. Kestens, F. Des Rosiers (p.478)

The Economic Consequences of Voluntary Environmental Information Disclosure
Gozali, N.O., J.C.Y How, P.Verhoeven (p.484)

Use of Wetlands for Sustainable Tourism Management
Lim, C., M. McAleer (p.490)

The Socioeconomic Importance of Eco-Resort Management Practices
Lim, C. (p.496)

Application of spatio-temporal environmental modelling and multi-criteria analysis to optimize the planning of socio-economic infrastructure
Pfeffer, K., D. Karssenberg, T.W.J. van Asch, P.A. Burrough (p.502)

A Microsimulation Model for Assessing Urine Flows in Urban Wastewater Management
Peters, I., K-H. Brassel, C. Spoerri (p.508)

Evaluating Agricultural Systems for Environmental Sustainability Using an Impact Matrix Approach
Ascough II, J.C., D.L. Hoag, A. Engler-Palma (p.514)
  Markets, risks and intellectual property

Sectoral Productivity Growth in China
Hu, B. M. McAleer (p.520)

STAR-GARCH Models of Ecological Patents in the USA
Chan, F., D. Marinova, M. McAleer (p.526)

Snapshot Images of Country Risk Ratings: An International Comparison
Hoti, S. (p.532)

Modelling the Asymmetric Volatility of Electronics Patents in the USA
Chan, F., D. Marinova, M. McAleer (p.538)

Trends and Volatilities in International Capital Flows for Developing Countries
Hoti, S. (p.544)

Modelling Time-Varying Volatility in Non-Ferrous Metals Markets
Watkins, C. and M. McAleer (p.550)

Systematic Risks, Speculators and the Forward Rate Puzzle
Radalj, K. (p.556)

Risk Premiums and the Forward Rate Anomaly: A Survey
Radalj, K.  (p.562)

Is East Asia An Optimum Currency Area?
Zhang, Z., S. Kiyotaka, M. McAleer (p.568)

Nano-technology Patenting in the USA
Marinova, D., M. McAleer (p.574)
  Economic and Econometric Methods

Deciding break interval in the discontinuous trend unit root test
Morimune, K., M. Nakagawa (p.580)

Dynamic Systems Analysis and Environmental Problems
Fukiharu, T. (p.586)

Using the Durbin-Watson Ratio to Detect a Spurious Regressions: Can We Make a Rule of Thumb?
Fukushige, M. and H.Wago (p.592)

Nonparametric Test for Translog Specification of Production Function in Japanese Manufacturing Industry
Konishi, Y., Y. Nishiyama (p.597)

An empirical evaluation of STAR-GARCH models in the presence of aberrant observations
Chan, F., M. McAleer (p.603)

On a GIS Based Hydrological Model for Flow and Contamination Transport in Lake Kinneret Watershed Ostfeld, A., A. Pries (p.609)

Contribute of GIS technique in the evaluation of anthropic impact change in a sub-alpine shallow lake Tartari,G., D. Copetti, G. Barbiero, S. Tatti, R. Pagnotta (p.610)

Model Coupling and Integration via XML in the M3 Simulation
Hoheisel, A. (p.611)

Modelling of POP Environmental Persistence and Long Range Transport By QSAR And Chemometric Approaches
Gramatica,P., E. Papa, S. Pozzi (p.617)

Integrated Simulation of Urban Drainage System and Receiving Water Body during Rainfall Events for both Quantity and Quality aspects
Maglionico, M. (p.618)