Page: Main.S12 - Last Modified : Sun, 29 Jun 08

Hide minor edits - Show changes to markup

Changed line 25 from:

to:

Changed line 29 from:

to:

Changed line 33 from:

to:

Changed line 37 from:

to:

Changed line 41 from:

to:

Changed line 45 from:

to:

Changed line 49 from:

to:

Changed line 53 from:

to:

Changed line 57 from:

to:

Changed lines 24-25 from:

to:

Changed lines 28-29 from:

to:

Changed lines 32-33 from:

to:

Changed lines 36-37 from:

to:

Changed lines 40-41 from:

to:

Changed lines 44-45 from:

to:

Changed lines 48-49 from:

to:

Changed lines 52-53 from:

to:

Changed lines 56-57 from:

to:

Added lines 17-59:

Changed lines 4-5 from:

to:

Changed lines 4-5 from:

to:

Deleted lines 5-7:

The components of global environment are estimated by means of models. Many different models are possible for any given component, and no criterion exists to pick one model over another. Instead, the models form an ensemble, which is assumed to be a consistent estimator of a given component -- that is, to be converging to the quantities being estimated as the number of models grows. Is this assumption close to reality? Are confidence intervals shrinking? To answer this question we need regular checks of model consistency based on well-agreed methodology and empowered by information technologies. The purpose of the session is to discuss the methodology of this sort and to define web-based services needed for its efficient implementation.

Added lines 12-14:

The components of global environment are estimated by means of models. Many different models are possible for any given component, and no criterion exists to pick one model over another. Instead, the models form an ensemble, which is assumed to be a consistent estimator of a given component -- that is, to be converging to the quantities being estimated as the number of models grows. Is this assumption close to reality? Are confidence intervals shrinking? To answer this question we need regular checks of model consistency based on well-agreed methodology and empowered by information technologies. The purpose of the session is to discuss the methodology of this sort and to define web-based services needed for its efficient implementation.

Added lines 1-17: