Today : Thu, 19 Sep 19 .



S12: Routine checks of model consistency: methodology and information technologies

Page: Main.S12 - Last Modified : Sun, 29 Jun 08

Organisers

Dr. Georgii A. Alexandrov, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Office for Global Environmental Database CGER/NIES, Japan (contact: g.alexandrov@nies.go.jp)

Topics

  • Evaluating uncertainties and developing expert judgments
  • Communicating uncertainties and confidence in findings that arise from modeling
  • Web-based services and software tools for model comparison and cross-validation
  • Collections of normative data for benchmarking model performance

Description

The components of global environment are estimated by means of models. Many different models are possible for any given component, and no criterion exists to pick one model over another. Instead, the models form an ensemble, which is assumed to be a consistent estimator of a given component -- that is, to be converging to the quantities being estimated as the number of models grows. Is this assumption close to reality? Are confidence intervals shrinking? To answer this question we need regular checks of model consistency based on well-agreed methodology and empowered by information technologies. The purpose of the session is to discuss the methodology of this sort and to define web-based services needed for its efficient implementation.

Schedule

Thursday 10
Time Title Authors Place
9:30 - 9:50 'A Methodology for Building Credible Models for Policy Evaluation' C. A. Aumann A6101
9:50 - 10:10 'Evaluating consistency of biosphere models: software tools for a web-based service' G. A. Alexandrov and T. Matsunaga A6101
10:10 - 10:30 'The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP): A Protocol and Evaluation Metrics for Global Terrestrial Biogeochemistry Models' F.M. Hoffman, J.T. Randerson, I.Y. Fung, P.E. Thornton, Y.-H. Lee, C.C. Covey, G.B. Bonan and S.W. Running A6101
10:30 - 10:50 'Reducing Uncertainty in Ecological Niche Models with ANN Ensembles' A. P. Kirilenko and R. S. Hanley A6101
11:20 - 11:40 'Towards model evaluation using Self-Organizing Maps' M. Herbst and M.C. Casper A6101
11:40 - 12:00 'A Software Component for Model Output Evaluation' G. Bellocchia, M. Donatellia, M. Acutisb, E. Habyarimanaa A6101
12:00 - 12:20 'Using SOAP to Develop Software for Air Trajectory Calculation' J. Zeng, T. Matsunaga and H. Mukai A6101
12:20 - 12:40 'Web Components for Development of Computational Methods: Example with Fuzzy' G. Bellocchi, F. Foscarini, M. Canonico and G. Van den Eede A6101
12:40 - 13:00 'What is the next? - General discussion' A6101